Couverture de RFHE_015

Article de revue

One hypothesis, two methods, two results

Shown with the example of the world’s truck market, 1970-2000

Pages 62 à 87

English

Contributions to economic history usually try to verify or falsify their hypothesis by applying one chosen method. Here we suggest generally using more than just one method, because different methods may lead to different results. As an example we test the hypothesis that during a whole generation the world’s truck market was dominated by the triad USA, Western Europe and Japan. In order to keep our argument straightforward we use very simple statistical methods. This contribution starts with a statistical overview of the world truck market, because there is very little general literature on trucks. The abundant literature on the car industry more or less ignores truck manufacturing. On that basis we apply to the world truck industry Ohmae’s thesis of triadization – what mattered in world economics was what happened in the Triad of the USA, Western Europe, and Japan. Does the distribution of the world’s truck industry support his thesis? We found that the support varies depending on the methodology applied. We first tested the thesis using a macro-economic view, based on countries and then using a micro-economic view, based on enterprises. Both methods provide some evidence that supports the thesis. However, the micro-economic perspective supports Ohmae’s thesis to a significantly larger degree than the macro-economic perspective does. The result based on one method is questionable, the other is not. Finally we underline the close relationship between analytical method and results. The difference between micro-economic and macro-economic analyses in these cases underlines once more the importance of using both approaches independently and in parallel; applying only one or the other would provide an incomplete picture of the international economic activity in question.
JEL Classification : N80, F23, B15

  • trucks
  • methods
  • FDI
  • exports
  • triad

Mots-clés éditeurs : exportations, méthodes, camions, IDE, triade

Date de mise en ligne : 16/07/2021

https://doi.org/10.3917/rfhe.015.0062

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26 pages format électronique (HTML et PDF)

Domaines

Sciences Humaines et Sociales

Sciences, techniques et médecine

Droit et Administration

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