1 When its ten new members join in May 2004, the European Union will have a population of 455 million people. It will then have the third-largest population in the world, far behind China’s 1.3 billion and India’s 1.1 billion inhabitants, but also well ahead of the United States (295 million), Russia (142 million) and Japan (128 million). Since being founded as the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1957, a series of enlargements over the years have turned the European Union (EU) into a demographic powerhouse (figure 1). The addition of ten new members will increase the population by close to 75 million people, but the new entity will have a lower rate of population growth.

The growing impact of “small” countries

2 The 455 million inhabitants of the Europe of Twenty-five are distributed between countries of varying population size: four have either side of 60 million people, but nine have under five million. The ten new members will significantly increase the number of small-population countries. The Europe of Fifteen had only one really “small” country 75% of the population of the enlarged European Union, the remaining 25% being divided between nineteen countries, eight of which have under 1% each. The demographic load of the big founder countries has (Luxembourg); now, it will have six countries with populations below 2.5 million (table 1).

3 The six most populous countries (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Poland) make up decreased steadily with each enlargement: the FRG, France and Italy together made up nearly 90% of the Community population in 1957, but account for just 44% today. In 1957, France had just over a quarter of the population of the Six; in 2004, it will have no more than 13% of the Union’s population, despite the 33% increase in its own population; Germany, as the FRG, had one-third of the population of the Six in 1957, but as currently constituted will have only 18% of that of the Twenty-five. The map of the European Union will in future mirror that of continental Europe—a continent fragmented by history where “big” countries are the exception.

The demographic construction of the European Union: from Six to Twenty-five

4 When the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957, the EEC comprised 167 million people, so its population will have increased by 288 million people (455 minus 167), an almost threefold rise in 47 years. Most of this growth stems from waves of expansion to nineteen countries: the United Kingdom, Ireland and Denmark in 1973; Greece in 1981; Spain and Portugal in 1986; Austria, Finland and Sweden in 1995; and finally, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2004 (figure 1).

5 The advent of ten new members bringing with them 74 million inhabitants in 2004, is the biggest enlargement in absolute numbers; but in relative terms, it increases the population of the Europe of Fifteen by only 20%—significantly less than the expansion from Six to Nine in 1973, when the extra 64 million people represented a 33% increase. The EEC’s—then the EU’s—aggregate population growth resulting from successive enlargements (and German reunification in 1991, which raised the population of Germany from 64 to 80 million) will stand at 235 million in 2004, after the ten new members enter.

6 But each Member State’s population is not immutable: it increases or may decrease. So, as well as the “political” component of population growth (accession of new members), there is an internal population growth component representing 55 million people in the aggregate. Latterly, annual population growth in the Europe of Fifteen has averaged one and a half million, compared with the nearly two million in the Europe of Six alone in the early 1960s.

7 This population growth comes from natural increase (balance of births and deaths) and the balance of migration (difference between arrivals and departures on Community territory). The aggregate natural increase for all countries stands at 32 million since their accession to the Community, 28 million of which has occurred in the six founder countries. The latter have contributed more to growth than the other countries for two reasons: they are the longest-standing members; and the ongoing population boom during the early years of the EEC. In the 16 years from 1957 to 1973, the population of the Six grew by 25 million people—more than in the next 30 years, when it increased by only 21 million.

8 The balance of migration (or net migration) is the difference between total population growth (55 million) and natural increase (32 million): it therefore amounts to 23 million. The migration component of population growth has therefore been less significant than natural increase or decrease over the period. But things have changed in the past ten years, and migration has become the main determinant of growth in the European Union.

9 Since the late 1980s, net migration has topped 11 million—double the natural increase. Immigration has now become the driving force behind the Union’s population growth, changing the very nature of the Union’s demographic regime.

	Population (millions)	%
Germany	82.5	18.2
France	59.9	13.2
United Kingdom	59.5	13.1
Italy	57.5	12.5
Spain	41.0	9.0
Poland	38.2	8.4
Netherlands	16.3	3.6
Greece	11.0	2.3
Portugal	10.5	2.3
Belgium	10.4	2.3
Czech Republic	10.2	2.2
Hungary	10.1	2.2
Sweden	9.0	2.0
Austria	8.1	1.8
Denmark	5.4	1.2
Slovakia	5.4	1.2
Finland	5.2	1.1
Ireland	4.0	0.9
Lithuania	3.4	0.7
Latvia	2.3	0.5
Slovenia	2.0	0.4
Estonia	1.4	0.3
Cyprus (1)	0.7	0.2
Luxembourg	0.5	0.1
Malta	0.4	0.1
Europe of Fifteen	380.8	83.6
Ten new members	74.1	16.4
Europe of Twenty-five	454.9	100.0
(1) Excluding the Turkish part. Note: countries are ranked by decreasing population size. The 10 new members are in bold type. Sources: European Observatory on Demography and Eurostat.

10 The trends of population change in the EEC, then in the EU, are shown in figure 2. In absolute numbers, the annual natural increase tops a million up to 1970, peaking at 1.4 million in 1965. Since the mid-1970s, the European Union has increased from 9 to 15 members, and from 257 to over 370 million people, but natural increase is now significantly lower, under 400,000 a year apart from a surge around 1990.

11 Conversely, the long-run decline in net migration from the late 1950s to the mid-1980s turned into a sharp rise around 1990, mainly due to events in Eastern Europe. Signally, all the countries in the Europe of Fifteen have now become immigration countries, when some (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, Ireland) were until recently sending countries.

12 The advent of the ten new members will curb population growth in the European Union, because they are experiencing negative natural increase with a surplus of more than half a million deaths over births since 1995, and a net emigration rate.

	Population at 1 January 2004	Demographic indicators (in 2002)
		Total increase (per 1,000 population)	Natural increase (per 1,000 population)	Migratory growth (per 1,000 population)	Proportion aged 65 and over (%)	Total fertility rate (1)	Life expectancy at birth
							Males	Females
Germany	82.5	1.2	-1.5	2.7	16.6	1.31	75.5	81.3
Austria	8.1	3.5	0.3	3.2	15.6	1.40	75.8	81.7
Belgium	10.4	4.5	0.5	4.0	16.9	1.62	75.1	81.1
Denmark	5.4	2.8	1.0	1.8	14.8	1.72	74.8	79.5
Spain	41.0	6.7	1.1	5.6	17.1	1.25	75.7	83.1
Finland	5.2	2.2	1.2	1.0	15.2	1.72	74.9	81.5
France	59.9	4.8	3.7	1.1	16.2	1.89	75.6	82.9
Greece	11.0	1.0	-0.2	1.2	17.3	1.25	75.4	80.7
Ireland	4.0	14.7	7.3	7.4	11.2	2.00	74.6	79.6
Italy	57.5	3.0	-0.3	3.3	18.2	1.23	76.7	82.9
Luxembourg	0.5	9.5	3.6	5.9	14.1	1.63	74.9	81.5
Netherlands	16.3	5.4	3.7	1.7	13.7	1.73	76.0	80.7
Portugal	10.5	7.6	0.8	6.8	16.5	1.47	73.8	80.5
United Kingdom	59.5	3.6	1.1	2.5	14.0	1.64	75.7	80.4
Sweden	9.0	3.6	0.1	3.5	17.2	1.65	77.7	82.1
Europe of 15	380.8	3.7	0.8	2.9	16.2	1.49	75.7	81.8
Cyprus (2)	0.7	11.8	3.8	8.0	11.4	1.49	76.1	81.0
Estonia	1.4	0.2	-3.9	4.1	15.5	1.37	65.3	77.1
Hungary	10.1	-3.2	-3.5	0.3	15.3	1.3	68.4	76.7
Latvia	2.3	-6.1	-5.3	-0.8	15.5	1.24	64.8	76.0
Lithuania	3.4	-3.8	-3.2	-0.6	14.2	1.24	66.3	77.5
Malta	0.4	6.1	2.0	4.1	12.6	1.46	75.8	80.5
Poland	38.2	-0.4	-0.1	-0.3	12.5	1.24	70.4	78.7
Czech Republic	10.2	-0.3	-1.5	1.2	13.8	1.17	72.1	78.7
Slovakia	5.4	0.3	0.1	0.2	11.5	1.19	69.9	77.8
Slovenia	2.0	0.5	-0.6	1.1	14.5	1.21	72.7	80.5
Ten new members	74.1	-1.0	-1.1	0.1	13.3	1.24	69.9	78.2
Europe of 25	454.9	3.0	0.5	2.5	15.7	1.45	74.8	81.2
1) Average parity. (2) Excluding the Turkish part. Figures in italics are for 2001 (Greece: 2000). NB: The results for groups of countries (15, 10 or 25) are national rate averages weighted by total populations. Sources: European Observatory on Demography and Eurostat.

Old and new members: two different demographic regimes

13 All the countries that make up the Europe of Fifteen share the same demographic regime, characterized by:

15 The aggregate annual growth rate for the Europe of Fifteen is 4 per 1,000 population entering the 2000s, with a balance of migration (arrivals less departures) of 3 per 1,000 and natural increase (births less deaths) of 1 per 1,000. The main factor behind the low natural increase is low fertility in the Europe of Fifteen, where average parity is 1.5. The other is population ageing: the all-Fifteen level of 16% of over-65s keeps total deaths high, even where there is mortality decline.

16 The population will continue to age, especially from mortality decline at the older ages. Mortality improvements, initially from declining child mortality rates, are now mainly due to mortality gains among the older population. This new progress explains the high figures achieved for life expectancy at birth: 76 years for males, 82 years for females.

17 The demographic regime of most new members of the European Union differs from this (table 2). Excluding Cyprus and Malta, where sustained natural increase is accompanied by net immigration, the eight central European countries mainly display very low—negative in five—total growth. There is a significant births deficit, except in Slovakia which has a very small excess of births (0.1 per 1,000 of population), with net emigration in three countries (Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) and slight net immigration in the rest. For these eight central European countries, the average rate of natural increase is –1.1 per 1,000 of population, and the average balance of migration is 0.1, producing a growth rate of –1.0 per 1,000. This clearly reflects significantly lower fertility than in the rest of Europe, with an average parity of 1.2 in a range from 1.39 in Estonia to 1.14 in the Czech Republic. Notwithstanding the recent birth rate decline in Central Europe, leading to a more rapid relative ageing of the population, the older population’s share of total population (13.3%) remains below that of the Fifteen current members of the Union, although it is rising. Finally, mortality remains higher than in western Europe, with an average life expectancy at birth below 70 years for males and equal to 78 for females.

18 Overall, enlargement will produce a demographic slowdown in the European Union, as the growth rate falls from 3.7 per 1,000 to 3.0 per 1,000 population, and a slight rejuvenation as the share of people aged 65 and over slips back from 16.2% to 15.7%.

The demographic implications of enlargement

19 The 2004—and later, the 2007—enlargements are set to have major demographic implications both for the new members individually and the Union countries as a whole. Three particular issues warrant close monitoring in the years ahead. First is mortality trends in the new Central and Eastern European members, who all have a significant lag compared to the Europe of Fifteen. Making up that lost ground would be a positive sign of improvements to people’s health and general living conditions. Then, if economic and social conditions improve, and the future grows less uncertain than in the past ten years, will fertility in these currently very low fertility countries begin to rise again, stay unchanged, or fall still further? The southern European countries—Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal—experienced no fertility rise from their accession to the European Union. Migration, finally, is an all-Union issue. Will the freedom extended to nationals from the new Member States to move and stay in any Union state cause significant population shifts towards the most prosperous Western countries, with Germany first in line? And moving the European Union’s borders eastwards will inevitably add an onerous duty to the new States responsible for policing the Union’s easternmost borders: the Baltic States, Poland and Slovakia.