Introduction

1 Palermo is a political laboratory. It presents a clear moderate-conservative profile regarding voting behaviour since the early stages of Italy’s democratic instauration. After a continued centrality of Christian Democracy (DC) in the so-called First Republic and despite a structural advantage of centre-right political formations since the 1990s, the city was controlled by a key political figure: Leoluca Orlando, the incumbent of the 2022 electoral competition with centre-left positions on most crucial issues, yet the leader of civic lists [1] that have traditionally obtained large consensus among Palermo’s citizens (Azzolina 2009). This study contributes to the electoral research on Palermo by investigating the outcome of the 2022 municipal election held on June 12, 2022. Along these lines, the study is structured as follows. Firstly, it illustrates the main features of Palermo’s electoral history by emphasising the role of Orlando’s legacy and the centre-right ruling class. Secondly, the study presents the electoral supply for the competition by highlighting the coalition strategies followed by the main political formations. Then, the third section deals with the electoral campaign, characterised by left parties’ disengagement and limited issue entrepreneurship. Moreover, the fourth part presents the electoral results, focusing particularly on the high abstentionism recorded, the vote shares obtained by candidates and parties, and the aftermath of the election. Then, a concluding section follows.

Centre-right dominance and the Orlando’s legacy: Palermo’s recent electoral history

2 For a long time, Palermo has been dominated by centre-right political formations. Centre-right parties have always attracted remarkable electoral support in the city, winning the vast majority of electoral contests at all levels: local, European, and general elections. In this vein, Palermo has been characterised by a clear profile of a moderate and conservative polity. Such features, however, are not imputable only to the support gained by centre-right parties. The pivotal party of the First Republic, the DC, was indisputably the dominant actor from 1948 up to the collapse of the old Italian party system in the 1990s.

3 As regards the recent electoral contests, Palermo’s electoral history patterns are characterised by three main factors. First, the growing level of abstentionism. Second is the increased fragmentation of the electoral supply, typical of Southern Italy (Improta 2021). Lastly, the critical role of the personalisation of politics, particularly the personal vote (Parisi and Pasquino 1977; D’Amico 1987; Emanuele and Marino 2016). The 2012 municipal election mark the starting point of these phenomena. Notably, the traditional centre-right coalition that had ruled the city in the previous ten years, formed by Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PDL), and post-Christian-democratic Union of the Centre (UDC) and Movement for Autonomies (MPA) [2], broke up and split into two distinct blocs.

4 On the one hand, the PDL supported Massimo Costa, former Sicilian President of the CONI (National Association for Olympic Affairs), also gaining the support of UDC and another local list. On the other, the MPA supported Aricò, a member of the Sicilian regional Assembly. The candidature of a third person further elicited the fragmentation of the centre-right coalition, Marianna Caronia, supported by Cantiere Popolare, a party established by former UDC members, especially by Saverio Romano. However, the fragmentation was not limited to the centre-right coalition. The left camp was split between the Democratic Party (PD), supporting Fabrizio Ferrandelli, who won the centre-left primaries against Rita Borsellino, and the challenger coalition led by Leoluca Orlando, who became Mayor with a landslide 72.4 percent in the runoff [3].

5 Regarding electoral participation, turnout was meagre in 2012: 63.2 percent. Therefore, Palermo was among the Italian cities recording the lowest turnout levels. As noted by Emanuele (2013), citizens in Palermo cultivated a sense of connection with specific people (e.g., the Mayor or some council members) rather than showing profiles of partisanship. This is not news, as Southern Italian voters typically show stronger feelings of attachment toward candidates than parties (Fabrizio and Feltrin 2007). However, this trend has become particularly relevant in Sicily in the last year, as voters in the Region show the largest share of preferential voting together with Calabria (Emanuele and Riggio 2017).

6 The results of the 2017 municipal elections further reinvigorated this pattern. On that occasion, turnout was even lower than in 2012, recording a decrease of almost 11 percentage points, thus reaching only 52.6 percent. The use of personal vote was again highly pronounced, and the fragmentation of the electoral supply reaffirmed its persistence. Nonetheless, fragmentation characterised only the centre-right coalition. In particular, Leoluca Orlando was the unitary candidate of the centre-left coalition, whereas the moderate parts of the centre-right supported Fabrizio Ferrandelli and the radical parts of the coalition showed support for Ismaele La Vardera. Finally, there was also a significant third pole in the competition, represented by the Five Star Movement (M5S) and its candidate, Salvatore Ugo Forello. However, in this context of changing patterns, there was a vital element of continuity: Leoluca Orlando. The Mayor was reelected with a 15 points margin over the centre-right candidate Ferrandelli. Therefore, the 2022 municipal election marked a trend reversal for Palermo.

7 Several interesting elements have characterised Palermo’s legacy regarding voting behaviour. To begin with, the centre-periphery cleavage [4] traditionally played an integral role in driving vote choices. In this regard, Emanuele (2013) documented that there has been a clear differentiation in voting behaviour patterns between the city centre and the peripheral neighbourhoods. This divide is also essential concerning electoral participation. Indeed, citizens in the peripheries tend to vote less than citizens in the city centre.

8 Moreover, Emanuele and Marino (2016) noted that another peculiarity of Southern Italian contexts lies in the frequent recourse to preferential voting. [5] Expressing preferences in Palermo and many other contexts of Southern Italy indicates that voters tend to follow candidates rather than parties, increasing the personalisation of the electoral competition and signalling a decreased attachment toward parties. As Southern Italy is traditionally a ‘swing’ area, without ‘southernist’ parties able to represent the interests of the citizens living in the Southern regions (Improta 2021), the preference vote is primarily a ‘personal’ vote triggering patronage and embedded with clientelism. In this regard, Palermo echoes patterns traceable in other Southern contexts, like Reggio Calabria: in contexts of fragile party organizations, floating voters, and a weak civic culture, personal vote represents the only element of continuity anchoring citizens to the political system (Emanuele and Marino 2016).

9 Palermo went to the polls in 2022 with these peculiar characteristics. As we will show in the following pages, patterns of change overruled those of continuity, with the return to the centre-right dominance experienced in the pre-Orlando era.

The electoral supply

10 Palermo’s municipal elections are regulated according to an electoral law that is distinct from the national electoral legislation, i.e., the 1993 Ciaffi law. The regional law no.17/2016 regulates the election by allowing an automatic victory at the first round to the candidates that reach 40+1 percent of votes. The electoral threshold is 5 percent for the lists. If the Mayor obtains 40 percent of votes, yet the connected lists do not obtain 40 percent, the Mayor does not receive the electoral prize of 60 percent of seats in the city council.

11 Table 1 shows the electoral supply of this election. The candidate of the centreright coalition comes from ‘outside’ the world of politics. Indeed, Roberto Lagalla is a medical doctor and former rector of the University of Palermo. However, he gained the support of well-established political figures in the city, such as the former President of the Region Totò Cuffaro and the Sicilian founder of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (FI) Marcello Dell’Utri. They were the ‘kingmaker’ of the centre-right coalition. Cuffaro and Dell’Ultri have played an essential role in Palermo during the decades [6]. The efforts of Cuffaro were mainly devoted to building a united coalition between the often-conflicting forces in Palermo, such as Brothers of Italy (FDI), and Prima l’Italia, i.e., the national rebranding of Salvini’s League. Indeed, FDI initially aimed at proposing its candidate and Prima l’Italia was sceptic about FI’s political personnel in the city due to their poor reputation [7]. However, Forza Italia has always played a significant role in Palermo regarding coalition building. Specifically, Gianfranco Micciché, current President of the Assemblea Regionale Siciliana (The Sicilian Regional Parliament), has been the leading figure in Palermo and Sicily after his famous record of “61-0” against the leftist parties in the 2001 general election [8]. When analysing the political developments of the centre-right coalition, it is essential to underline that the ruling class belonging to this family has been central in determining its political faith even after electoral losses. In this light, the current ruling class of the centre-right very much follows the same political features of the First Republic’s, i.e., 1945-1992.

12 The other main coalition of the 2022 election is the centre-left. The candidate of this coalition is Francesco Miceli, President of the National Order of the Architects and former assessor in Orlando’s administrations. During the election campaign, journalists and pundits considered Miceli mainly in line with Orlando’s tradition. Unlike elsewhere in Italy, the centre-left in Palermo successfully established a large coalition by including the M5S. The party currently led by Giuseppe Conte had become a dominant force in Palermo after the 2013 and 2018 general elections when it obtained, respectively, 33 and even 46 percent, becoming institutionalized in local politics (Macaluso and Montemagno 2019).

13 Moreover, Fabrizio Ferrandelli represents the ‘third pole’ candidate in the competition. After a lengthy membership in the Italy of Values, the party founded by the former Tangentopoli’s public prosecutor Antonio Di Pietro, Ferrandelli joined the PD as a top party group member in the city council. Interestingly, Ferrandelli built strong ties with former Mayor Leoluca Orlando. However, their good relationship was interrupted when Orlando decided to run for Mayor in the 2012 municipal election after Ferrandelli’s victory in the primary elections against Borsellino, Orlando’s supported candidate. After the 2012 loss against Orlando, Ferrandelli moved closer to centre-right forces yet maintained a ‘civic’ profile. His candidacy in 2017 was mainly supported by people opposing Orlando and the centre-right ruling class at the same time. Therefore, the 2022 campaign represents his third consecutive attempt to become Mayor and, interestingly, to do so with the support of three ideologically different coalitions.

14 Finally, there are also three minor candidates. On the one hand, left-wing Giuseppa Rita Barbera is supported by just one radical left national formation, i.e., Power to the People and her list. On the other, right-wing Francesca Donato ran for the election only with her list, whereas right-wing Ciro Lomonte was also supported by two national lists, the ultra-catholic Popolo della Famiglia and Gianluigi Paragone’s Eurosceptic ItalExit.

The electoral campaign

15 The electoral campaign was characterised by a clear sense of citizen detachment and party politicians’ risk-averse approach. There are two main reasons underpinning the subdued campaign. First, the electoral system and the electoral supply depicted a situation in which the decisiveness of the election was limited, and the predictability of the final result was high. In particular, electoral constraints indicated the advantages of the centre-right coalition, as nine lists supported it, whereas the centre-left only by four. The high number of supporting lists for the centreright secured a clear competitive advantage for Lagalla as the coalition could count on a larger number of ‘lords of preferences’ (Emanuele and Marino 2016), namely local politicians with personal votes [9].

16 Furthermore, the electoral campaign was centred on the judgments over the incumbent, namely the Orlando administration. Notably, Orlando’s legacy was perceived as a failure not only by his centre-right opponents but, more generally, by the majority of Palermo’s voters, even his own former supporters, mainly for the financial and budgetary management of the city’s resources. Palermo indeed risked being subject to special supervision, i.e., the commissariamento, by the national government. Alongside financial-related issues, the main issues of the competition were the graveyard emergency – characterised by dramatic conditions because of the paucity of available graves for burying deceased persons, and the municipal waste crisis.

17 In particular, the centre-left coalition focused on mobilising voters in the battle against the local mafia by shedding light on the centre-right ruling class’ past. In this way, the electoral campaign took the form of a pure ‘negative campaign’ (Skaperdas and Grofman 1995). Negative campaigning was also among the possible causes of low turnout, as explicit debates over policy issues were absent in the political and public debate.

Electoral results

Participation

18 Similar to other cities and areas of Southern Italy, Palermo traditionally records lower shares of electoral participation (Davì and Montemagno 2019) than do cities in Northern Italy and especially in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany, such as Bologna and Florence.

19 In this regard, Figure 1 illustrates the voter turnout in Palermo in the Italian general elections from 1994 to 2022. Even in contexts that should be characterised by increased participation, Palermo records low turnout echoing a pattern of turnout in second-order elections (Reif and Schmitt 1980), namely European and local elections, even in elections that are considered ‘first-order’ like the general ones. The limited participation signals a substantial detachment of voters from politics exacerbated by parties’ difficulties in fruitfully exerting their expressive function (Sartori 2005), although the decay in turnout was a general trend in 2022 municipal elections in Italy (Improta and Angelucci 2022). However, low turnout in Palermo primarily affects peripheral social groups in terms of economic conditions, thus producing unequal turnout (Lijphart 1997).

Figure 1

Voter turnout in general elections in Palermo (1994-2022)

Voter turnout in general elections in Palermo (1994-2022)

20 As shown in Figure 2, only 41,9 percent of citizens voted in the 2022 municipal elections. This is the lowest turnout recorded in all types of elections (general, European, regional, and municipal). The reasons underpinning this dramatic decay lie in the reduced perceived decisiveness of the elections, which were deemed highly predictable by voters expecting Lagalla to win.

Figure 2

Voter turnout in municipal elections in Palermo (2007-2022)

Voter turnout in municipal elections in Palermo (2007-2022)

Competition

21 Moving to the results, Table 2 shows the vote share obtained by the candidates and their supporting political formations.

Table 2

Results of the 2022 municipal election in Palermo

Description

Candidate Votes Vote share (%) List Votes Vote share (%) Seats Roberto Lagalla 98,448 47.63 Forza Italia (FI) 21,125 11.28 7 Fratelli d’Italia (FDI) 18,915 10.10 6 Lavoriamo per Palermo 17,365 9.28 5 Democrazia Cristiana 10,389 5.55 3 Prima l’Italia 9,747 5.21 3 Alleanza per Palermo - Movimento d’Iniziativa Popolare 8,150 4.35 - Lagalla Sindaco - Libertas - Unione di Centro 7,054 3.77 - Noi con l’Italia - Autonomisti Via - Noi di Centro 6,268 3.35 - Moderati per Lagalla Sindaco 1,682 0.9 - Francesco Miceli 61,083 29.55 Partito Democratico (PD) 21,746 11.62 5 Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) 12,075 6.45 3 Progetto Palermo - Franco Miceli Sindaco di Palermo 11,455 6.12 3 L’Unità X Palermo - Sinistra Civica Ecologista 8,005 4.28 1 Fabrizio Ferrandelli 29,389 14.22 Azione con Calenda - Ferrandelli Sindaco - +Europa 15,236 8.14 4 E Tu Splendi Palermo 2,391 1.28 - Rompi il Sistema 1,792 0.96 - Giuseppa Rita Barbera 9,079 4.39 Rita Barbera Sindaca 5,614 3.00 - Potere al Popolo! 859 0.46 - Francesca Donato 6,510 3.15 Rinascita Palermo - Francesca Donato Sindaco 5,439 2.91 - Ciro Lomonte 2,173 1.05 Siciliani Liberi - Popolo della Famiglia - Con Paragone - Ciro Lomonte Sindaco 1,897 1.01 - Total 206,682 100 187,204 100 40

Results of the 2022 municipal election in Palermo

22 As anticipated, the winner of this competition is Roberto Lagalla, candidate of the centre-right coalition. Lagalla received 98,448 votes in absolute terms, 47.6 percent of votes. In the internal competition between the main centre-right parties, FI reached the highest vote share (11.3 percent), slightly more than Fratelli d’Italia (10.1 percent). The League, participating with the national list Prima l’Italia, obtained a limited support (5.2 percent), having been overtaken by Cuffaro’s newly launched list, Democrazia Cristiana (5.6 percent). In light of these results, Lagalla’s victory was very much driven by national political parties and the key figure of the centre-right ruling class in the city involved in the Democrazia Cristiana.

23 Moving to the centre-left, Francesco Miceli obtained 29.6 percent of the votes. The PD was the primary force in this coalition, reaching 11.6 percent. The M5S, on the other hand, failed to confirm its past results reducing its electoral support from 37 percent obtained in the 2018 general election to 6.5 in the 2022 municipal election. Miceli’s list almost achieved the same vote share, reaching 6.1 percent. The limited support obtained by the centre-left coalition is also the result of fragmentation. While the centre-right coalition managed to agree on a single candidate, Francesco Miceli was also opposed by Fabrizio Ferrandelli of the third pole.

24 The other loser of the election, Ferrandelli, who ran for the third consecutive time as a mayoral candidate but this time with an outsider, centre-leaning coalition, obtained a not irrelevant vote share (14.2 percent). In particular, Carlo Calenda’s national party, Azione, gained more support (8.1 percent) than the M5S and the League (Prima l’Italia). Finally, the other minor candidates did not obtain high vote shares, and thus they all failed to win seats in the municipal council.

25 Overall, the result of the 2022 municipal election in Palermo was highly influenced by the pervasive role of the centre-right historic ruling class. In particular, the dissatisfaction with Orlando’s administration and with politics in general played an integral role. With low turnout, and with the key leading figure of the centre-left in the city (Orlando) definitively out of the competition, the centre-right has a structural advantage (Palermo is a traditionally moderate-conservative environment). Moreover, with low turnout, the weight of the personal vote increases, and the centre-right can count on many more candidates seeking preference votes. Lagalla thus efficiently managed to obtain the highest vote share in light of the satisfactory result of Forza Italia and also of the surprising result of the Democrazia Cristiana. Lagalla’s victory very much confirms an unwritten rule of Italian politics and majoritarian electoral competition: a united coalition facing a divided one will likely be the winning coalition.

Conclusion

32 This article has dealt with the 2022 municipal election in Palermo by focusing on the electoral supply, the electoral campaign, the results – in terms of participation and vote share – and the aftermath of the election. Roberto Lagalla and the centre-right coalition, particularly the moderate components of it, Forza Italia and Democrazia Cristiana, were the primary winners of this electoral competition. The driving mechanisms behind the centre-right electoral success are the integral role played by the centre-right ruling class and the divisions of the opponents. The centre-left indeed suffered heavy losses in both vote and seat share due to the coalition’s difficulties in building solid agreements between centrist and leftist forces. Moreover, the centre-left coalition deemed the defeat highly predictable. Thus national leaders were timid regarding their public appearances in support of Miceli.

33 The 2022 election represented a negative record concerning electoral participation. Only 41,9 percent of voters showed up to the polls. Thus turnout was the lowest in Palermo municipal elections and, more generally, in all kinds of elections in the city. During the election campaign, political formations did not try to mobilise non-voters seeking to depoliticise politically-sensitive issues. Overall, the election campaign was conducted according to preservation strategies – such strategies led to low electoral turnout. Emanuele (2013) noted that Palermo’s political participation is based on candidate-oriented relationships rather than partisan ties. Like other areas of Southern Italy, Palermo still confirms its place as a disaffected polity (Emanuele 2017). Both local and national politics fail to mobilise voters and effectively satisfy citizens’ needs and demands. Lagalla’s administration has complex challenges ahead, and the proper management of the Recovery Funds is crucial to alleviate citizens’ distrust of political elites in the city.